MATHEMATICAL MODELING THE NEEDS FOR ANTIBIOTICS IN PATIENTS WITH PANCREATIC NECROSIS

DOI: https://doi.org/None
Issue: 
3
Year: 
2017

Professor D.Kh. Shakirova (1), PhD; Professor D.M. Krasilnikov (1), MD; M.R. Safiullin (1); E.Yu. Loginova (1); Ya.V. Gribova (2); G.Kh. Garifullina (2) 1 - Kazan State Medical University; 49, Butlerov St., Kazan 420012, Russian Federation; 2 - Republican Clinical Hospital, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tatarstan; 138, Orenburgsky Road, Kazan 420064, Russian Federation

Introduction. To determine the need for antibiotics in patients with pancreatic necrosis, it is necessary to take into consideration the socioeconomic, medical, demographic, and sanitary-and-epidemiological factors that influence the use of drugs in this patient group, Objective: to determine the prediction of needs for antibiotics to treat inpatients with pancreatic necrosis. Material and methods. The investigation used a multivariate mathematical modeling technique, online and face-to-face interview surveys, content analysis of case histories from patients with pancreatic necrosis. Results. Mathematical models were calculated, which allowed a short-term prediction of the need for antibacterial drugs to treat patients with necrotizing pancreatitis at the Department of Abdominal Surgery, Republic Clinical Hospital, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tatarstan. Conclusion. Multivariate mathematical modeling to predict the need for gentamicin, sulperason, tienam, and cefotaxime proved impossible, as explained by the pronounced, irregular stochastic nature of their use.

Keywords: 
antibiotics
prediction of needs
mathematical modeling
pancreatic necrosis

References: 
  1. Bagirova V.L., Sataeva L.G. Vliyanie reformirovaniya sistemy zdravoohraneniya Respubliki Kazahstan na zabolevaemost` social`no znachimymi zabolevaniyami i kachestvo ih lekarstvennogo obespecheniya. Problemy social`noy mediciny i upravleniya zdravoohraneniem, 2007; 9: 18–23.
  2. Gostishhev V.K., Glushko V.A. Pankreonekroz i ego oslozhneniya, osnovnye principy hirurgicheskoy taktiki. Hirurgiya, 2003; 3: 50–4.
  3. Zaharova E.V. Sistema upravleniya obespecheniya kachestva medicinskoy pomoshhi na regional`nom urovne. Menedzhment kachestva v sfere zdravoohraneniya i social`nogo razvitiya, 2006; 1: 41–3.
  4. Zubov N.N., Umarov S.Z., Bunin S.A. Matematicheskie metody i modeli v farmacevticheskoy nauke i praktike: rukovodstvo dlya provizorov i rukovoditeley farmacevticheskih predpriyatiy (organizaciy). SPb.: Izdatel`stvo Politehnicheskogo universiteta, 2008; 249.
  5. Safronova T.A., Kobzar` L.V. Mnogofaktornoe modelirovanie potrebleniya antidiabeticheskih preparatov. Farmaciya, 1984; 3: 6–8.
  6. Chernov V.N., Velik B.M., Tolstov I.E., Mareev D.V. Abdominal`nyy sepsis pankreatogennoy e`tiologii: osobennosti razvitiya i principy lecheniya. Sbornik materialov Rossiyskoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii: «Aktual`nye voprosy neotlozhnoy hirurgii (ostryy pankreatit, gnoyno-septicheskie oslozhneniya ostrogo pankreatita)». Stavropol`, 2006; 119–21.
  7. Shalimov A.A., Lifshic Yu.Z., Krichevskiy V.V., Kozhara S.P. Modificirovannaya taktika lecheniya bol`nyh s nekroticheskim pankreatitom. Klinicheskaya hirurgiya, 1994; 11: 3–6.